{"id":11721,"date":"2026-11-05T12:16:05","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T10:16:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.uef.fi\/cceel\/?p=11721"},"modified":"2026-11-05T12:16:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T10:16:06","slug":"article-6-comes-to-the-eu-international-carbon-credits-the-eu-ets-and-the-future-of-climate-ambition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.uef.fi\/cceel\/article-6-comes-to-the-eu-international-carbon-credits-the-eu-ets-and-the-future-of-climate-ambition\/","title":{"rendered":"Article 6 comes to the EU: International carbon credits, the EU ETS and the future of climate ambition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Kateryna Holzer<\/a>, Senior Researcher at the University of Eastern Finland<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Photo by the author.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The EU is designing its post-2030 climate framework. In March 2026, it amended<\/a> the European Climate Law to introduce a legally binding target of reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. This target envisages two important flexibilities: domestic permanent carbon removals and international carbon credits. More recently, the European Commission has proposed<\/a> to incorporate both of these flexibilities into compliance with the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), sparking intense debate<\/a> among policymakers, academics and civil society. Do the introduced new forms of flexibility weaken the EU ETS and European climate ambition by reducing pressure for domestic emissions reductions? Or do they make the EU’s increasingly ambitious climate objectives more realistic and politically achievable in a challenging economic and geopolitical environment? This blog post addresses these questions from the perspective of EU climate law and international climate governance. It argues that the proposed reforms must be understood in light of the broader objectives of the Paris Agreement, particularly its framework for international cooperation under Article 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balancing between climate ambition and preserving competitiveness of European producers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The EU ETS is the flagship of EU climate policy and the main tool of emissions reductions in the EU energy, industrial, aviation and maritime sectors. It was established in 2005 as the first ETS and the largest compliance market in the world. Since then, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in covered sectors have fallen by more than 50%<\/a>. These emissions reductions have coincided with the progressive tightening of the overall emissions cap at the beginning of each ETS phase, which gradually reduced the number of available allowances and strengthened incentives for decarbonisation. At the same time, a stricter cap always imposed higher compliance costs on domestic producers bound by the emissions allowance obligation, fueling recurring concerns<\/a> about industrial competitiveness and the risk of carbon leakage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While such concerns have accompanied the EU ETS since its early days<\/a>, they have become particularly prominent in discussions surrounding the design of the post-2030 ETS<\/a>. The preparation of the fifth ETS phase (2031-2040) is taking place against a markedly different economic and geopolitical backdrop, characterised by heightened global trade tensions, increasing protectionism, disruptions to international markets, and growing public expenditure on security and defence following Russia’s war against Ukraine. In this context, the European Commission has sought to introduce additional flexibilities into the post-2030 climate architecture, not only to address competitiveness concerns but also to secure political support<\/a> for an increasingly ambitious climate policy framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In March 2026, the EU adopted<\/a> the next legally binding climate target of at least 90% net GHG emissions reductions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. At the same time, it opened the possibility for up to 5% of reductions against 1990 levels to be achieved through international carbon credits acquired under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. This plan to use international credits has enabled a revision of the ETS trajectory for 2031-2040, with a lower linear reduction factor<\/a> than would have resulted from simply extending the current trajectory beyond 2030 (3.7% reduction for the period 2031-35 and 1.7% for 2036-2040, compared to 4.3% for 2024-27 and 4.4% for 2028-2030). Some argue that these developments represent a weakening<\/a> of EU climate ambition and sits uneasily with Article 4.3 of the Paris Agreement, which establishes the ratchet mechanism requiring Parties to progressively increase their climate ambition over time. But is that necessarily the correct interpretation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Viewed through the lens of international climate law, the answer may be more nuanced. The emerging architecture suggests not a retreat from climate ambition, but rather a shift toward a more integrated form of climate cooperation in which domestic reductions, permanent removals and internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) all contribute to achieving EU increasingly ambitious climate objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is the EU retreating from climate ambition?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Let us begin with the observation that, while Article 4.2 of the Paris Agreement requires Parties to pursue domestic mitigation measures to achieve their nationally determined contributions, Article 6 expressly permits them to engage in voluntary cooperation through the international transfer of mitigation outcomes, thereby allowing emission reductions generated abroad to contribute towards their climate objectives. Importantly, the possibility of making use of this flexibility through cross-border carbon offsetting is not limited to developing countries; it is available to all parties to the Paris Agreement, including the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to Article 4.3, it requires successive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to represent a progression beyond the previous one and to reflect a Party’s highest possible ambition. Yet the EU’s proposed trajectory can plausibly be seen as representing precisely that. The EU and its Member States have adopted some of the world’s most ambitious legally binding emissions reduction targets on the path to climate neutrality by 2050. For its 2030 target, the EU committed itself to achieving at least a 55% net reduction in emissions entirely through domestic action. Its updated NDC (NDC-3), submitted ahead of COP30<\/a> in Bel\u00e9m in November 2025, further increased that ambition by containing the goal of achieving between 66.25% and 72.5% of emissions reductions by 2035. The latest goal for 2040 foresees 90% of emissions reductions. Even excluding the international credit component, the EU would still be committed to achieve at least 85% domestic net reductions by 2040. This is a substantial increase from the current 55% target and a significant progression from the EU’s intermediate 2035 commitments, let alone that an 85% domestic emissions reduction target for 2040 is among the most ambitious, if not the most ambitious, economy-wide climate commitments adopted by any Party to the Paris Agreement to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 5% flexibility therefore does not replace the core of EU climate action. Rather, it supplements an already highly ambitious domestic decarbonisation trajectory. Seen in this way, the international-credit component of the EU 2040 target functions less as a loophole and more as a political and economic mechanism<\/a> that has helped secure support for a significantly more ambitious climate target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

International cooperation is a defining feature of the Paris Agreement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The debate also raises a broader question about how the credit-based cooperation under the Paris Agreement towards the achievement of NDCs should be viewed. For many years, climate policy discussions in Europe have framed international credits as inherently inferior<\/a> to domestic mitigation. This perception is partly shaped by the EU’s negative experience<\/a> with Kyoto Protocol Clean Development (CDM) and Joint Implementation mechanisms, particularly what concerns their additionality and environmental integrity. The use of Kyoto Protocol credits for compliance in the first three phases of the EU ETS contributed to the oversupply of allowances and the subsequent collapse of carbon prices in the EU carbon market. Yet, Article 6 represents a different model: it operates within a framework of corresponding adjustments<\/a>, enhanced transparency provisions and detailed accounting rules designed to prevent double counting and safeguard environmental integrity. Most importantly, transactions require host-country authorisation<\/a>. This means that mitigation outcomes are no longer simply private offsets traded in loosely regulated markets. They are increasingly becoming sovereign climate assets embedded within national climate strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developing countries across Africa, Latin America and Asia are already investing heavily in Article 6 readiness frameworks and domestic legislation. Countries such as Chile, Ghana, Kenya and Mozambique are building legal and institutional structures<\/a> to participate in international carbon-market cooperation. They regard Article 6 not merely as an environmental mechanism but as a source of climate finance, technology transfer and sustainable-development<\/a> investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One concern frequently raised in this context is the risk of so-called \u2018carbon colonialism<\/a>\u2019. There is a legitimate concern that developing countries may authorise transfers of cheap mitigation outcomes today<\/a> while leaving themselves with expensive decarbonisation pathways tomorrow. Yet comparisons with historical colonialism should be approached carefully. Unlike colonial extraction of past centuries, Article 6 transactions occur between sovereign states exercising authority over their own carbon resources. Mitigation outcomes are not taken, they are purchased, and host countries retain the ability to decide whether to authorise transfers or not and under which conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenge is therefore not sovereignty but governance. And the crucial question is whether countries develop robust strategies to manage their carbon budgets and ensure that international transfers remain compatible with their own long-term climate objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the Commission’s centralised purchasing facility matters<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

One of the most important features of the Commission’s proposal has received little attention. The proposal does not reintroduce the old model in which individual ETS installations could purchase and surrender international credits for compliance. The European Commission appears to have learned from previous experience with the CDM and instead it proposes a centralised purchasing facility<\/a> that will secure up to 260 million tonnes of high-quality international credits between 2036 and 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This distinction is legally significant. Under the proposed model, ETS installations will not choose which credits to buy. The Commission will effectively act as a central purchaser, maintaining control over eligibility criteria, procurement procedures and quality standards of credits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such an approach offers several advantages. First, it creates stronger safeguards against low-quality credits entering the compliance system. Second, it enables the EU to negotiate directly with partner countries under Article 6.2 cooperative approaches, or with project developers under Article 6.4. Third, as it was argued in my previous blog<\/a>, it makes it possible to incorporate additional “Paris-Plus” requirements into Article 6.2 bilateral agreements. These may include safeguards related to human rights, sustainable development, anti-corruption measures and enhanced verification standards<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Swiss experience<\/a> demonstrates that such approaches are feasible. Several Swiss Article 6.2 agreements already contain provisions concerning corresponding adjustments, sustainable development objectives, project authorisation procedures and integrity criteria that go beyond minimum Paris requirements. A centralised EU credit purchasing facility could therefore become not merely a purchasing mechanism but a vehicle for exporting best practices and high-integrity standards into international carbon markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A demand signal for high-integrity Article 6 credits<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Commission\u2019s ETS reform proposal is the demand signal it creates for carbon markets. For years, discussions concerning Article 6 have focused on supply. Policymakers have asked whether developing countries could generate high-quality mitigation outcomes and whether robust accounting systems could be established. The Commission’s proposal addresses the demand side<\/a>. A commitment to purchase up to 260 million tonnes of high-quality credits could generate a significant market signal for government-authorised mitigation outcomes. It may encourage countries to establish Article 6 frameworks, strengthen monitoring and verification systems, and develop pipelines of authorisable mitigation projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The resulting market would differ fundamentally from traditional voluntary carbon markets<\/a>. Credits would need to satisfy host-country authorisation requirements, corresponding-adjustment obligations and EU-defined integrity criteria. In this respect, the proposal may accelerate the transition from fragmented carbon markets<\/a> toward more institutionalised forms of international climate cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The debate over the post-2030 EU ETS highlights an important reality of climate governance: achieving net zero is no longer simply a matter of reducing emissions within national borders. The EU’s decision to permit a limited use of international credits for compliance with the 2040 target and to explore new opportunities for international cooperation under the Paris Agreement marks a shift in how climate action is being understood. Of course, this shift will only succeed if environmental integrity remains at its core. Concerns about quality of carbon credits, accounting, verification and double counting are legitimate, and the credibility of the entire system will depend on getting these details right. Much will ultimately depend on the details of implementation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interpreting the EU’s new approach solely as a weakening of climate ambition would overlook the scale of the domestic effort that remains required. An 85% reduction in emissions to be achieved within the EU is still a highly ambitious target by any objective standard. At the same time, carefully governed international carbon credit-based cooperation may mobilise climate finance, accelerate mitigation in developing countries and contribute to the emergence of more integrated global carbon markets. The question is therefore not whether international carbon credits should play a role in achieving climate targets. The Paris Agreement already answers that question in the affirmative. The real challenge is how to design international carbon market cooperation in a manner that safeguards environmental integrity, supports sustainable development and contributes meaningfully to the transition toward climate neutrality. The EU’s emerging Article 6 cooperation architecture may represent one of the most important experiments in answering that question.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Kateryna Holzer, Senior Researcher at the University of Eastern Finland The EU is designing its post-2030 climate framework. In March 2026, it amended the European Climate Law to introduce a legally binding target of reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. 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