Programme
NATO Advance Research Workshop (ARW) G6206, Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme
Resilience as a Deterrence Strategy: Towards a Comprehensive Security Panorama
Joensuu, Finland, October 1-3, 2024
Unless specified otherwise, all sessions will take place in room AU100, Aurora, University of Eastern Finland
We reserve the right to change this programme!
Day 0 | Mon Sept 30
Arrival of the participants
18:10 Pick-up from the airport
Day 1 | Tue Oct 1
Arrival of the participants
07:40 Pick-up from the airport
12:00-13:30 Registration and light lunch
13:30-14:30 Welcome | Aims and objectives of the event
- Prof. Jussi P. Laine, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland
- Prof. Jukka Mönkkönen, Rector, University of Eastern Finland
- TBC
Greetings from the border
Colonel Matti Pitkäniitty, Commander of the North Karelia Border Guard District
14:30-15:45 Opening plenary: “Ritual Deterrence: NATO and its Eastern flank”
Prof. Maria Mälksoo, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
- “Russia and Hybrid warfare – beyond the label”
Dr. Hanna Smith, Senior Strategic Advisor to the Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) - “‘Bolshaia Evraziia—Greater Eurasia’: Russia’s new strategic discourse and the implications for NATO”
Prof. Mark Bassin, Södertörn University, Sweden
15:45-16:00 Agenda Setting Icebreaker: Interactive opinion poll
16:00-16:20 Coffee Break
16:20-17:00 Brainstorming session I
Facilitators: Prof. Petersson; Prof. Vallet, Prof. Laine
17:00-17:10 Day 1 Wrap-up
18:30- Welcome Reception
For speakers only
Day 2 | Wed Oct 2
09:00-10:30 Interactive Roundtable 1: Towards a New European Security Landscape
Moderator: Prof. Jussi P. Laine, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland
Introduction to the theme (brief statements) by
- Lessons from Failed Conjectures of Russian Politics in the 2020s
Prof. Bo Petersson, Department of Global Political Studies Malmö University, Sweden - Russian and Ukrainian Politics and Security: hybrid warfare; terrorism; transnational crime
Dr. Rainer-Elk Anders, Bath Spa University, UK - Predicting the Unpredictability of a Thwarted Great Power: Russia’s behaviour in its immediate neighbourhood
Prof. Jeremy Smith, University of Eastern Finland: - Fear Factor? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the changed attitudes towards NATO in Finland
Dr. Veera Laine, Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland - Security and democracy in the context of non-military/hybrid warfare and the new security landscape
Dr. Ingrid Vik, UTSYN – Centre for Security and Resilience, Norway
Open discussion
Interactive poll
Reactions from the panelists
10:30-10:45 Refreshment Break
10:45-12:00 Panel 1: Looming Security Developments
Chair: Prof. Bo Petersson, Department of Global Political Studies Malmö University, Sweden
- New Security Challenges in the Post-Soviet Space: reading between the lines
Prof. Akihiro Iwashita, the Slavic-Eurasian Research Center, Hokkaido University, Japan - From Conflict to Cooperation: what can be learned from Russia’s relationship with China
Dr. Paul Richardson, University of Birmingham, UK - Central Asia’s Role in Securing NATO’s Eastern Border in East-West trafficking networks
Dr. Paul Fryer, University of Eastern Finland - Divisions, Passages and Thresholds in European Borderlands: Anthropological perspectives on new risks and ambivalences
Dr. Carolin Leutloff-Grandits, European University Viadrina, Germany - The Politics of Embodied Encounters in Asylum Seeking
Dr. Gintarė Kudžmaitė, Tampere University, Finland
12:00-12:30 Brainstorming Session II:
Russia has been defined as “the most significant and direct” threat to the alliance. What are the practical implications of this? What does this mean to the neighbouring states?
> Open discussion
> Interactive poll
Reflection: Anna-Maria Wiker, The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats
12:30-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:00 Panel 2: Way Forward for NATO: challenges ahead
Chair: Dr. Rainer-Elk Anders, Bath Spa University, UK
- NATO’s Collective Identity Following Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Dr. Johanna Vuorelma, Centre for European Studies, University of Helsinki, Finland - War and Society in a Hyper-connected World: challenges for NATO
Dr. Matthew Ford, Department of War Studies and Military History, Swedish Defense University - Hungary’s Seesaw Policy in NATO – with what effects?
Dr. Péter Balogh, HUN-REN CERS IRS and Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary - Poland Becoming a Military superpower: Implications for NATO
Dr. Monika Sus, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
15:00-15:20 Coffee Break
15:20-16:30 (Reverse) Brainstorming Session III:
What are challenges that NATO must overcome to stay apace and ahead with the security developments? What role for border(studies) in building security and resilience?
> Result validation: interactive virtual poll (all attendees)
16:30-17:00 Gap analytics / Prioritization and categorization of ideas
Preparation for the recommendations
19:00- Dinner Reception
hosted by the City of Joensuu
Joensuu Art Museum (all registered guests)
Day 3 | Thu Oct 3
09:00-10:30 Panel 3: Security. Cooperation. Governance: Neighbours’ views
Chair: Dr. Joni Virkkunen, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland
- Russia and the Transnistrian separatism in the Republic of Moldova: geopolitical, military and energetic implications
Dr. Octavian Țîcu, Researcher Coordinator, Institute of History, Moldova State University / Associate Professor, University of Bucharest - Shrinking Borderlands under Surveillance: Technological and communal aspects to border security
Prof. Eiki Berg, University of Tartu, Estonia - The war did (not) change that: Continuity and change in Russia’s foreign policy after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Dr. Damian Strycharz, Cracow University of Economics, Poland - The Role of NATO in the Trust Building with its Neighbours
Dr. Katarzyna Stokłosa, Centre for Border Region Studies, University of Southern Denmark - Russia-Ukraine war and evolving security dilemma of Central and Eastern Europe
Dr. Tomasz Stępniewski, The John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Poland
10:30-10:45 Refreshment Break
10:45-12:30 Interactive Brainstorming Roundtable
(building on the results of the previous panel): How has Russia increased its hybrid threat activities in the neighbouring/NATO countries due to its war in Ukraine? What role for border security in building resilience towards hostile hybrid threats emanating from Russia?
Facilitators: Prof. Élisabet Vallet, Royal Military College Saint-Jean & University of Quebec at Montreal, Canada & Prof. Jussi P. Laine, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland
Introduction to the theme (brief statements) by
- Borderlands and the potential long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine: The case of Hungary
Dr. Sara Svensson, Halmstad University, Sweden - Patterns in Nascent, Ascendant and Mature Border Security: Regional comparisons
Prof. Todd Hataley, Sir Sanford Fleming College, Canada - Framing Entangled Borders in the Baltic States
Sandra Charlotta Hagelin, University of Tartu, Estonia - Ukraine at War: Resilience and Normative Agency
Dr. Yuliia Kurnyshova, University of Copenhagen, Denmark - Building Effective Deterrence: Examples from the Norway-Russia border
Dr. Bjarge Schwenke Fors, The Barents Institute, UiT The Arctic University of Norway - Managing Irregular Cross-Border Movements: The Morocco-Spain Approach
Prof. Said Saddiki, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez, Morocco
> Questions to the panelists: How to foster EU-NATO cooperation on border security as part of resilience building towards hostile hybrid threat attacks from Russia?
> Open discussion
> Interactive poll
12:30-13:30 Lunch
13:30-14:45 Panel: Human Aspects of Security: building local resilience
Chair: Prof. Jopi Nyman, University of Eastern Finland
- The Role of Refugee Women in Enhancing Awareness of Security Developments and Building Resilience
Prof. Nurcan Özgür Baklacioğlu, Department of Political Sciences and International Relations, Istanbul University, Turkey - Return Policies from a Security Perspective: Ukrainian War Migrants and Nordic Host Societies
Dr. Olga Filippova, University of Eastern Finland / V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Ukraine
Dr. Oleksandra Deineko, NIBR, OsloMet University / V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Ukraine - Finland’s Russian-speaking Immigrants’ Securitized Transnational Connections and Feelings of Insecurity
Prof. Olga Davydova-Minguet, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland - A Safe Haven? Ukraine’s western border regions since the full-scale Russian invasion
Dr. Tatiana Zhurzhenko, ZOiS – Centre for East European and International Studies, Berlin, Germany
14:45-15:00 Coffee Break
15:00-16:00 Interactive Brainstorming Roundtable: New Security considerations – how to prepare for the unpredictable?
Facilitator: Prof. Jussi P. Laine, Karelian Institute, University of Eastern Finland
Panelists:
- Prof. Élisabet Vallet, Royal Military College Saint-Jean & University of Quebec at Montreal, Canada
- Prof. Maria Mälksoo, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
- Dr. Joni Virkkunen, University of Eastern Finland
- Prof. Bo Petersson, Department of Global Political Studies Malmö University, Sweden
> Questions to the panellist: what could alliance do better to build effective deterrence? How to enhance early warning with a view to preventing crises?
> Interactive exercise
> Prioritization poll
16:00-16:30 Conclusions and the Next Steps
Prioritization of the recommendations